As most of you know, my tidal window to swim the English Channel opened last weekend (23rd Sept), and I have been in and around Dover, waiting for clear weather. Some crew has arrived from Australia (my wife, and a swimming friend Alex), we've met with UK crew (my Dad and Gaz), and are all organised. There have been middle of the night training sessions in the harbour, and lots of eating, massage, and other constructive activities.
For a short while it looked as if I would be able to swim last Friday, but this was not to be in the end, so since then we've been eagerly tracking the weather on a daily, and hourly basis (most readable forecast available at http://cspf.co.uk/10-day-forecast). The trick is really low winds, as with the water running so fast in the channel, even the slightest breeze causes substantial waves. Waves are bad for swimming, particularly when the tide / current is moving at upto 6km per hour (far faster than I can swim!). So, when you look at the weather forecast, we need winds of Force 2 or less, for about 16 hours................
The second major factor is the tide. My "window" (23rd - 28th Sept) is the last typical window for channel swimming this year. This is due to the cooling of the water (already down to 15 degrees C versus 17 a few weeks ago), and the decrease in the quality of the English weather.
Channel swimming "windows" occur in the "neap" tide, where the difference between high and low tide is least dramatic. A neap tide will have a difference of only 3.7 metres between high (5.7M) and low (2M). A spring tide (all days outside the short "neap" windows) will have a tidal range of 6 metres between high (7m) and low (1m). This is a massive difference in the volume of water flowing between the two headlands, creating much faster currents, and dramatically reducing the slack water period between tides (down to 20 mins from more than an hour). Given slack water is the period you aim to swim across the final kilometres to the French shore, this is critical, as it makes it much much harder to time your swim. For slower swimmers (a group I still count myself a member of), it makes it much harder to succeed.
Anyway, technicalities over, the weather's not looking great for the next week. This means several things:
1. If I swim outside the neap tide window it will be even harder to succeed than normal
2. My Australian crew may have to leave England, leaving me short-handed on the boat.
3. I may have to consider delaying my flights back (not good for work)
4. Given we are almost in October, the risk is that the weather does not improve.........and my "window" ending this week is typically the last week people swim the Channel!
I thought the training was gruelling. This waiting game, and the uncertainty around getting in the water is horrendous. I can't begin to tell you how badly I want to get on with this and get it done! The cost (personal and financial) of coming back next year does not bear thinking about.
I will update you as soon as possible, and paste below here a recent weather update from one of the Channel Pilots:
Update of the weather forecast.
Sorry but it looks like the earliest anything is going to happen will be next Friday - and that could be debatable.
We have Gales and strong wind warnings for the next 3 days and then the wind will need to drop and the sea settle before anyone will be thinking of going to sea.
Talk to your pilots.
Dover -- Shipping Forecast - Issued: 0405 UTC Mon 24 Sep
Gale warnings - Southwesterly storm force 10 expected soon
Wind -- Southeast 5 to 7, veering southwest 7 to severe gale 9, increasing storm 10 for a time.
Sea State -- Rough or very rough, perhaps high for a time.
Weather -- Thundery showers.
Visibility -- Good, occasionally poor
----------------------------------------------------
North Foreland to Selsey Bill
Strong winds are forecast
For coastal areas up to 12 miles offshore from 0600 UTC Mon 24 Sep until 0600 UTC Tue 25 Sep
24 hour forecast:
Wind -- Southeasterly 4 or 5, veering southwesterly gale 8 or severe gale 9, increasing storm 10 for a time in Strait of Dover, then decreasing 6 or 7 later.
Sea State -- Moderate, becoming rough or very rough.
Weather -- Thundery showers.
Visibility -- Moderate or good, occasionally poor at first.
----------------------------------------------------
Outlook for the following 24 hours: from 0600 UTC Tues 25 Sep until 0600 UTC Wed 26 Sep
Wind -- Southwesterly 6 or 7, backing southerly 5 or 6 later.
Sea State -- Rough, becoming moderate later.
Weather -- Thundery showers.
Visibility -- Moderate or good
----------------------------------------------------
For a short while it looked as if I would be able to swim last Friday, but this was not to be in the end, so since then we've been eagerly tracking the weather on a daily, and hourly basis (most readable forecast available at http://cspf.co.uk/10-day-forecast). The trick is really low winds, as with the water running so fast in the channel, even the slightest breeze causes substantial waves. Waves are bad for swimming, particularly when the tide / current is moving at upto 6km per hour (far faster than I can swim!). So, when you look at the weather forecast, we need winds of Force 2 or less, for about 16 hours................
The second major factor is the tide. My "window" (23rd - 28th Sept) is the last typical window for channel swimming this year. This is due to the cooling of the water (already down to 15 degrees C versus 17 a few weeks ago), and the decrease in the quality of the English weather.
Channel swimming "windows" occur in the "neap" tide, where the difference between high and low tide is least dramatic. A neap tide will have a difference of only 3.7 metres between high (5.7M) and low (2M). A spring tide (all days outside the short "neap" windows) will have a tidal range of 6 metres between high (7m) and low (1m). This is a massive difference in the volume of water flowing between the two headlands, creating much faster currents, and dramatically reducing the slack water period between tides (down to 20 mins from more than an hour). Given slack water is the period you aim to swim across the final kilometres to the French shore, this is critical, as it makes it much much harder to time your swim. For slower swimmers (a group I still count myself a member of), it makes it much harder to succeed.
Anyway, technicalities over, the weather's not looking great for the next week. This means several things:
1. If I swim outside the neap tide window it will be even harder to succeed than normal
2. My Australian crew may have to leave England, leaving me short-handed on the boat.
3. I may have to consider delaying my flights back (not good for work)
4. Given we are almost in October, the risk is that the weather does not improve.........and my "window" ending this week is typically the last week people swim the Channel!
I thought the training was gruelling. This waiting game, and the uncertainty around getting in the water is horrendous. I can't begin to tell you how badly I want to get on with this and get it done! The cost (personal and financial) of coming back next year does not bear thinking about.
I will update you as soon as possible, and paste below here a recent weather update from one of the Channel Pilots:
Update of the weather forecast.
Sorry but it looks like the earliest anything is going to happen will be next Friday - and that could be debatable.
We have Gales and strong wind warnings for the next 3 days and then the wind will need to drop and the sea settle before anyone will be thinking of going to sea.
Talk to your pilots.
Dover -- Shipping Forecast - Issued: 0405 UTC Mon 24 Sep
Gale warnings - Southwesterly storm force 10 expected soon
Wind -- Southeast 5 to 7, veering southwest 7 to severe gale 9, increasing storm 10 for a time.
Sea State -- Rough or very rough, perhaps high for a time.
Weather -- Thundery showers.
Visibility -- Good, occasionally poor
----------------------------------------------------
North Foreland to Selsey Bill
Strong winds are forecast
For coastal areas up to 12 miles offshore from 0600 UTC Mon 24 Sep until 0600 UTC Tue 25 Sep
24 hour forecast:
Wind -- Southeasterly 4 or 5, veering southwesterly gale 8 or severe gale 9, increasing storm 10 for a time in Strait of Dover, then decreasing 6 or 7 later.
Sea State -- Moderate, becoming rough or very rough.
Weather -- Thundery showers.
Visibility -- Moderate or good, occasionally poor at first.
----------------------------------------------------
Outlook for the following 24 hours: from 0600 UTC Tues 25 Sep until 0600 UTC Wed 26 Sep
Wind -- Southwesterly 6 or 7, backing southerly 5 or 6 later.
Sea State -- Rough, becoming moderate later.
Weather -- Thundery showers.
Visibility -- Moderate or good
----------------------------------------------------
